Make no mistake, Donald Trump won the November 8^th Republican debate despite not being there. For the third time the former president thumbed his nose at his disheartened opponents, this time upstaging them by rallying an enthusiastic throng of Hispanics 10 miles away in Hialeah.  The two-hour NBC debate in Miami, Trump declared, was unwatchable.

Trump won because none of his rivals explained to voters that even in our toxic, polarized country a four-time indicted former president can not win a presidential election.  They sounded no alarm despite knowing that Trump is so far ahead that by March when 16 states hold primaries he is likely to have locked up the nomination. Iowa, the first popularity contest, holds its Republican caucus January 15^th, barely two months from now. The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Trump far ahead registering 43% support while Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis languish at 14%. 

Strategically it was smart politics to stay away. Let Trump’s opponents slug it out castigating one another while the embattled former president remains above the fray. The five laggards failed to lay a glove on Trump while they outdid one another in unwavering, lockstep support for Israel in its war with Hamas.  They uttered not a word of sympathy for the 10,000 who have died from Israel’s retaliatory onslaught.  Some– Haley, Christie and Scott—even waved a figurative green flag should Israel choose to extend the war to Iran, which they identify as the principal villain. 

The day before the Miami debate Republicans took yet another shellacking. A popular Democratic governor was re-elected in Kentucky, Ohio voters approved a state constitutional amendment expanding abortion rights, and Virginia voters turned back Republican efforts to win control of both houses of the state legislature.

Republicans seem not to realize that a majority of women oppose efforts to restrict access to abortion. Since the June 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning a constitutional right to abortion, Democrats have succeeded in blaming Republicans for restricting reproductive freedom.  Abortion was central to dashed Republican expectations in the 2022 Congressional elections. The projected red wave didn’t happen as Democrats held the Senate and Republicans only narrowly secured the House.  Exit polls revealed that many Republican women voted Democratic because of abortion.  

Further erosion of Republican popularity came at the beginning of this year as the majority party couldn’t unify on choosing a speaker.  Only on the 15^th House vote did Kevin McCarthy squeak through, but the moderate Californian was ousted eight months later by disgruntled far right wingers.  Internal strife devolved into a clown show with pundits concluding that Republicans were unable or unwilling to govern.  It would be three more weeks before anti-abortion Trump loyalist Mike Johnson was finally elected speaker in late October.

For soon to be 81-year-old Joe Biden Republican disarray is a huge gift. Not widely popular despite a resilient economy, President Biden nonetheless seems a better bet to be elected in November than a volatile, angry Donald Trump. Do Republicans not care that if the former president is their candidate  he is likely to be fighting to avoid jail or already behind bars?

Billionaire investor Lee Cooperman reveals the dreary state of American politics by recalling that in 1789 the United States had a population of under three million but produced such leaders as Washington, Jefferson, Adams, Franklin and Hamilton.  In 2023, Cooperman continues, the US has a population of 335 million and yet “the best we can come up with is Donald Trump and Joe Biden.”  #