What Will a Recovery Look Like? Part II

WASHINGTON:  The Peterson Institute for International Economics on April 10 said the US economy is currently contracting at an unprecedented 50% annual rate with unemployment likely to reach 18% by June. But if the virus is contained and the shutdown is lifted, the Washington-based think tank predicts an equally rapid snap-back with the economy growing at a 50% pace in the July to September quarter. In … Continue reading What Will a Recovery Look Like? Part II

What Will a Recovery Look Like?

WASHINGTON; April 9, 2020: We’re in the midst of an unprecedented global economic shutdown, the kind of black swan event or exogenous economic shock  we’ve been warned about.  It happened with frightening speed.  In just six-weeks the US economy went from 50-year low unemployment to 17 million people out of work.  Share prices, at a peak in mid-February, plunged over 20% into a bear market.  We’re experiencing a global … Continue reading What Will a Recovery Look Like?

Hiking to Yosemite’s Tall Trees

Oakhurst, CA:  In 1903 famed naturalist John Muir brought President Theodore Roosevelt to Yosemite National Park in California’s High Sierras.  They spent three days hiking, riding and camping in the wild.  Roosevelt was smitten with the beauty of the place and he and Muir declared “wilderness saves the human spirit.”   These two pioneer conservationists began their Yosemite journey at Mariposa Grove, home to the world’s oldest tall trees, … Continue reading Hiking to Yosemite’s Tall Trees

Letter From Berlin: Wealth and Worry

 In 1891 Mark Twain brought his wife and three young daughters to live in Berlin for six months. He wrote of the German capital, “it’s a new city, the newest I have ever seen, the main mass of the city looks as if it had been built last week.”  The same might be said today 75 years after World War II’s fire and fury reduced … Continue reading Letter From Berlin: Wealth and Worry

Rebalancing China US Economic Relations

  When a moving train decouples, there’s danger ahead. Which is why decoupling is the wrong word to describe the trade conflict between the United States and China.   What’s actually happening is that bi-lateral trade is being rebalanced, correcting inequities that have long favored China. The Phase One agreement that was signed January 15th is a big step in the right direction. It promises a … Continue reading Rebalancing China US Economic Relations